How new facilities get their electricity will determine whether Texas keeps or loses 20 years of pollution reductions
Media Contact: Matt Dulin, [email protected], 281-364-6060
THE WOODLANDS, Texas —The data center boom could erase much of Texas’ hard-won progress on air quality by the end of the decade, according to a new analysis from HARC, an independent nonprofit research organization.
Between 2002 and 2024, Texas’ power generation sector cut nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions by 68%, sulfur dioxide by 84%, and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) by 60%, even as the state’s population and economy grew rapidly.
HARC’s projections show that meeting new data center demand could reverse much of that progress by 2031, if not sooner. The projections were published today as part of an interactive report that provides estimates of emissions impacts under various power generation scenarios applied to three data center demand forecasts from ERCOT, Transmission Service Providers, and BAXTEL, to demonstrate a range of possible outcomes.
Texas data centers are expected to add more electricity demand in the next six years than the entire grid added in the last 20. Power plants that generate emissions will be part of that mix, with implications for air quality.
In one scenario, if announced or planned data center projects are powered by the anticipated grid mix for the next 5 years, power-sector NOx emissions could rise 145% from 2025 levels and PM2.5 would more than triple, while CO2 would rise 90%. Emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) would also climb sharply, though from a much smaller base.
The outlook is far worse if data centers rely on on-site natural gas engines. Under the highest demand forecast HARC modeled, that approach would produce more NOx each year than all sources in Texas emit today. Pollution controls would cut that NOx, but even controlled engines would emit about two to three times as much as grid power. CO2 emissions would also climb. Even under the most conservative demand forecast, the power sector would emit roughly 251 million metric tons of CO2 in 2031, about 38% above 2025 levels. Under the highest demand forecast, power-sector CO2 could reach roughly 900 million metric tons, more than Texas’s total emissions from all sources in 2024.
“Our analysis is cause for concern. There is a good chance that our children and grandchildren will breathe dirtier air than we did,” said John Hall, CEO of HARC. “The transportations sector, the state, and other stakeholders have been working for decades to successfully bring these numbers down, and that progress is now at risk.”
The analysis also points to a scenario with less impact. Supplying data centers with a mix of one-third grid power and the rest powered by on-site renewables like solar and wind would cut the NOx and CO2 emissions by roughly two-thirds compared with a scenario in which data centers are covered by grid power alone.
“Power-supply choice is what drives the outcome. Data center developers and the policymakers that write the rules of the road are going to dictate where we end up,” said Carlos Gamarra, Vice President for Energy, Air and IT for HARC, whose team produced the air quality impact scenarios.
HARC’s Data Center Policy Playbook identifies potential regulatory and legislative reforms that could mitigate these impacts.
To generate the models, researchers assumed that data centers would operate at 80% capacity continuously, and that in each scenario, all new data centers would all conform to a single power generation format. Data centers may not operate at full capacity, and a variety of power generation tools will be used.
An interactive dashboard with the full projections and methodology is available at: https://harcresearch.org/research/texas-data-center-air-quality.
About HARC
HARC is an independent nonprofit research organization focused on sustainability, translating research into practical solutions since 1982. Learn more at harcresearch.org.
